TRUST ME, BOND MARKET, PLEASE. James Glynn at The Wall Street Journal had a piece this week about how the Federal Reserve is considering following Australia’s lead in using “yield caps” as a policy tool to keep long-dated interest rates down. The thinking is if the central bank explicitly signals it will always institute bond-buying if the yield on a benchmark asset such as the 10-year Treasury note rises above some predefined ceiling, the market will be less inclined to prematurely believe the Fed is going to start tightening monetary policy. In other words, we won’t see a rerun of the 2013 “Taper Tantrum,” when the U.S. bond market, worrying that the Fed would start tapering off its bond-buying, or quantitative easing, drove down bond prices, which pushed up yields. (For bond market newbies, yields, which measure the effective annual return bondholders will earn off a bond’s fixed interest rate when adjusted for its price, move inversely to price.)
OF MONEY AND MYTHS. I’m reading Stephanie Kelton’s book “The Deficit Myth.” In a future edition of Money Reimagined, I’ll have more to say on the most influential modern monetary theory proponent’s explanation of its ideas. But for now I’ll just say that, while I’m not likely to be a convert to all its prescriptions, it seems clear that MMT is widely misunderstood by folks on both the left and the right – also, very much by the crypto industry. The latter is perhaps because people in crypto tend to skew more to the metallist school of money, rather than to chartalism. Either way, a clearer grasp of what MMT is all about would, I believe, help improve the industry’s discussion around government, money, trust and how blockchain-based systems can integrate with the existing one.
We’ve been using Google Ads for the past 6 months to help us get more visibility for our smart contract auditing services and we’ve noticed a strange change in the last few days. It seems that Google completely blacklisted Ethereum as a keyword. Any of the keywords that contain ‘ethereum’ in our campaigns are no longer showing ads as of January 9th.
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DeFi’s ‘Agricultural Revolution’ Has Ethereum Users Turning to Decentralized Exchanges. DEX, often touted as a fairer and safer way to trade cryptocurrencies, might finally have its use case: yield farming. In the past, as Brady Dale reports, most people haven’t wanted to self-custody, preferring institutions to manage the risks of holding their keys for them. But in DeFi, where people undertake dual borrowing-and-lending schemes to make big, quick returns on incentives and high interest rates, is better if you control the keys during the trade. And decentralized exchanges are seizing the opportunity.
Gold has had at least three millennia to establish itself as a store of value people turn to when social systems are in stress. Bitcoin has only existed for 11 years. While plenty of investors are willing to speculate on the possibility bitcoin might supplant or compete with gold, the idea is far from ingrained across society. When will it be more widely accepted? Perhaps when the international crisis of global leadership unleashed by COVID-19 undermines the capacity of institutions like the Federal Reserve to sustain economic and social confidence. Whatever new institutions and systems we create going forward will need to address how the internet has upended society’s centralized systems of governance. When that happens, we’ll need a decentralized, digital reserve asset as the base value layer. As I said, it will take time. Meanwhile, the developers will keep building.
Yaz is a cryptocurrency technical analyst with over seven years of technical analysis trading experience. As an Economics graduate, he has taken a keen interest in the future potentials of blockchain in the financial industry. Removing crypto from the equation, Yaz loves to watch his favorite football team and keep up-to-date with the latest fights within the UFC.
Speculators have often pushed the cryptocurrency market forward by merely selling their crypto-assets for fiat profits. However, Ethereum’s budding ecosystem allows for money to be spent and earned within its own internal economy. Although we are still a long way away from maturity, once Ethereum scales, these positive developments will surely accelerate.
I like POW (proof of work) crypto currencies where the system is ruled on the basis of how much computing power you can apply to maintaining the system. I’ve steered clear of Ethereum because it is heading towards POS (proof of stake,) a system where oligarch-sized owners of the coin get to call the shots and likely do what oligarchs do best, poop on the little people and fight to the death amongst themselves. Crypto is politics in software form, so to me the political framework of cryptocurrencies is all important. The POS future for Ethereum is a killer for me long term, but right now it is not that “in the long term we are all dead” that is the key, it is that visibility of the long term itself is all but dead.
Why the Stock-to-Flow Bitcoin Valuation Model Is Wrong. Maybe you shouldn’t be banking all your finances on a halving-driven appreciation in bitcoin this year. In this op-ed for CoinDesk, contributor Nico Cordeiro picks apart one of the most commonly cited theories for why many people expect bitcoin’s baked-in quadrennial money supply decelerations to boost its price.
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